Predictable At Best

By Dan Hutton on December 15, 2010 in

Harold Holt and LBJ

OK, so this time last year I made a number of forecasts about the online world in 2010. And looking back I have to marvel at my clairvoyant-like ability to both see the future and also be completely wrong.

Is it only 12 months ago that I predicted that Twitter would die in the arse? What was I smoking? Although what has happened is that Twitter has evolved into a global gaffe broadcast mechanism. It’s the personalised equivalent of Wikileaks, where world leaders sledging other world leaders can garner the same level of international interest as a picture of a league player copping a harmless blowie from a mate’s Labrador.

I also predicted that Yahoo would team up with Microsoft to take on Google’s search dominance. Wrong again. It appears there was more chance of Gillard boning Rudd and then racing Abbott to the arse-end of politics (turns out the race was a draw).

Like every other pundit I was spot on with the prediction of yet more outrageous growth for Facebook; however, no one realised just how much of a total dick Mark Zuckerberg was until the release of an unauthorised movie about his adolescent geek-quest for popularity, bitches and bucks. Achieving one out of three isn’t bad!

In 2010 we saw Rupert Murdoch begin to charge for his online news content. While results have been meagre so far he’s a little bit like the guy who starts chatting up chicks the moment he arrives at the pub – you know that while there’ll be plenty of knockbacks coming his way at first, his persistence might just pay off.

I don’t think anyone could’ve foreseen Apple ruling the digital roost the way they did in 2010. First off they released the iPad – selling millions of them – mostly to people who didn’t even want a massive iPhone that couldn’t make calls and generally looked like a smudgy piece of crap. Then they released the iPhone 4, and despite the fact that early models lost reception when held using your hand (just what are Steve Jobs hands made of, non-conductive scrotal skin?) they also sold in the zillions. I’ve got no idea what tricks are up Apple’s sleeve for 2011 but I guarantee their fans will pay too much for them.

Looking back on 2010 we covered a lot of great stuff, and much to the relief of my psychologist there were hardly any mentions of porn. Making the big calls for 2011 is tough, but here we go with some thoughts in no particular order: MySpace will succumb; everything will get a touch screen; X-Box Kinect will scare the shit out of Nintendo Wii; Google will buy something big that might change the world – whether for the better or worse is still TBA; the humble DVD store will become a highly endangered species; online retailing will become huge; online privacy – or the lack of – will start to freak everyone out; and, as much as they suck, tablet computers will be everywhere.

My number one prediction for 2011, however, is that Julian Assange will find out what really happened to Harold Holt.

Unfortunately he won’t be able to tell us about it.
Happy New Year!