All At Sea

By Daniel Brooks on June 28, 2011 in Other

The Gillard government is in dire straits. It is ideologically and directionally adrift and has been reduced to relying on Opposition infighting for good news days. If things do not improve, it will almost certainly lose the next election.

The bright spot in all this is that it presents an interesting insight into the state of politics in Australia, and – for a change from all the doom and gloom that pervades political commentary these days – it is a positive one. The lesson that should be taken from the dire predicament of the Gillard government is this: principles and conviction still matter in Australian politics. It is a simple lesson, but it is one that should be heeded by each of the political parties as well as the independents as we progress through this constant election campaign that is minority government.

The weakness of the current government is often explained in the context of the unusual set of external pressures that it faces: the first minority government in 67 years; a rabble of independents; and an unprecedented level of industry opposition to its reform plans. Alternatively, the government is claimed to be suffering from poor communication of otherwise good performance. These all exist, but they are symptoms of its weakness rather than causes.

Rather than being the victim of external circumstances, the Gillard government’s problems are almost entirely self-inflicted and can be reduced to two simple failures: the failure to develop a narrative and the failure to demonstrate conviction in its pursuit. These are the bases for political leadership. In short, the government is vulnerable because it has consistently failed to show any political leadership since it came to office.

This failure has been caused in equal parts by failures of skill and character on the part of Ms Gillard and a number of her most senior ministers. The ability to form a narrative of government – the purpose and principles of governing – is an essential skill in modern politics. However, narratives are nothing if they are not supported by conviction. Conviction is what lends purpose and predictability to governing actions; it demonstrates the necessary credibility that voters look for in their leaders. Moreover, a narrative helps voters make sense of the thousands of minute and complex compromises that responsible governments must make every day. It also helps governments to explain these compromises by placing them in the bigger picture.

It is these dual failures of leadership that have eroded what little political capital Ms Gillard’s government initially possessed and is a characteristic which threatens to define her prime ministership.

The irony of this situation is that failures of principles and conviction are the charges that the government most fondly lays against Tony Abbott. Whilst this may well be accurate, the opinion polls suggest that this is a battle they are losing. It is no coincidence that the two most prominent public issues of the moment – climate change and asylum seekers – are the two clearest examples of this government’s leadership failings, and are the two issues in which the ALP is furthest behind the Coalition. And these are the same polls that have the ALP’s primary vote at 15 year lows and Ms Gillard’s approval rating at lower than Kevin Rudd’s at the time he was ousted.

Nevertheless, what this means for the moment is that effectively we have two opposition leaders – both more interested in winning the short term news cycle than governing – and no Prime Minister. The reason that this situation is worse for Ms Gillard than Mr Abbott is that he has less to lose by succeeding. The more effective Ms Gillard becomes at being an opposition leader over the next two years, the more likely it becomes that she will end up as one.